Surge in Kenya Child Numbers Strains Amenities
Experts are warning of a major strain on social services due to an unexpected surge in the number of children in Kenya. According to new statistics released last week, a drop in child mortality has kept the population growth unexpectedly high at a time when the economy is recording a serious reversal following last year's post-election violence and the global meltdown.
Increased awareness of good health practises among many Kenyans has led to increased rates of child vaccination and use of mosquito nets, thereby improving child survival. But population experts are warning of strained social services and increased poverty levels if the government does not act with speed to make the economy growth match the level of annual births.
Average number
Although the average number of children each woman is giving birth to has declined in the last four years, according to results released last week, population experts and economists say population increase has not had corresponding economic growth.
"Our economy will feel the heavy strain of rapid population growth," University of Nairobi population lecturer Agwanda Otieno told experts at a meeting on Friday. But scholars, government officials and donors who met in Nairobi gave the country a thumbs up after preliminary results of the Kenya Demographic Health Survey showed that the number of births per woman had declined slightly from 4.9 to 4.6.
This means that on average a Kenyan woman who is at the beginning of her child-bearing years will give birth to 4.6 children by the end of her reproductive period if fertility levels remain constant. But they warned that those figures were far below what would be expected given that the economy was growing at less than 3 per cent per year.
The workshop also noted that the number of women using contraceptives has grown from 39 per cent to 46 per cent over the last five years. Those improvements have, however, done little to cut down the population growth, which has been boosted by a reduction in deaths among adults and children.
Dr Agwanda said the number of deaths from HIV/Aids has declined significantly from evels earlier projected following increased provision of anti-retroviral drugs. Increased levels of awareness through advocacy campaigns had also helped reduce the deaths from the disease.
Dr Agwanda also said the number of deaths had drastically reduced, meaning there were more infants surviving than was the case a few years ago. According to the KDHS report, Kenya's fertility rate may be returning to the decline registered from the mid 1970s to the late 1990s.
The birth rates reported in the latest document are the lowest ever recorded. The figures stood at 8.1 live births per woman in 1978 and 4.7 in 1997. USAid senior health manager (officer of population and health) Sheila Macharia said there were still regional differences in birth rates which she wanted addressed.
She said many couples, especially in Nyanza and Western areas, still had a desire for large families, which was a big worry in trying to control population growth. Dr Macharia called on Kenyans to shun myths and misconceptions regarding contraceptive use, especially for men from certain regions.
"We urge men to have a greater understanding of contraceptive issues and get involved in helping control population," she said. Dr Macharia said there had been a big focus on fighting the HIV/Aids menace much to the detriment of family planning programmes.
Although 36 per cent of women use contraceptives, 25 per cent say they would like to use them but do not have access to them. She proposed that special products be supplied for the youth to encourage them to use contraceptives. "We cannot expect small boys and girls to line up in health centres since we know they will be ashamed," she said.
Dr Agwanda said fertility rates in Kenya should have been around 4.1 since contraceptive use levels went up. He also said the drop in the mortality rate of children under five from 115 per 1,000 to 74 per 1,000 was a huge reduction. "We want to do the analysis and get explanations for that," he said.
But the experts say the reduction in the fertility levels did not come down as expected since the figure was still high. "We must do more to cope with population growth," he said. University of Nairobi lecturer and demographer Wanjiru Gichuhi complained of low male involvement in family planning campaigns. "We need serious communication among couples to help get male involvement in family planning campaigns," she said.
She also suggested that programmes target youth. A World Health Organisation national professional officer, Dr Nancy Kidula, called for improved FP programmes, saying 3.1 million women in Kenya wanted to delay, space or limit the number of children they have.
She said increased family planning services will lead to fewer deaths in pregnancy. Demand for abortion services will also drop, she said. She said that supplying enough family planning gadgets over the next 10 years will lead to fewer unintended pregnancies.
The move would also result in 1.2 million fewer abortions and 2.1 million fewer unintended births. About 14,000 maternal deaths could be averted by supplying enough family planning tools as would 430,000 child births. The Economic Secretary in the ministry of Planning, Stephen Wainaina, said one of the major challenges in the attainment of the Vision 2030 plan was the rapid population growth.
According to the study, the low levels of childhood deaths were an indication that the quality of live was getting better. It showed that the under-five mortality was 74 deaths per 1,000 per year. This means one in every 14 children born in Kenya during the five year period that the study covered died before reaching their fifth birthday.